Lucid (US:LCID) The Motley Fool·2025-06-27 10:47Core Viewpoint - Lucid Group is experiencing significant sales growth, projected at 72% this year and 97% next year, driven by the introduction of its Gravity SUV platform, but faces critical risks from potential changes in federal policies regarding EV incentives [1][2]. Sales Growth - Sales are expected to grow by 72% in the current year and 97% in the following year due to the new Gravity SUV platform [1]. - New models may be introduced as early as 2026, indicating a positive outlook for product expansion [1]. Policy Risks - Lucid Group is particularly vulnerable to changes in federal policies, especially regarding the potential elimination of long-standing subsidies, such as the federal tax credit for EV buyers, which can be as high as $7,500 [2]. - The elimination of these incentives could lead to a significant increase in the effective cost of purchasing an EV, negatively impacting sales across the electric vehicle sector [3]. Historical Context - Historical data from Europe shows that when EV incentives were reduced, sales were adversely affected. For instance, after Germany ended its average incentives of around €4,700 per car in 2023, EV sales in Germany dropped by 16.4%, while the rest of Europe saw a 9.4% increase in sales [5][6]. - This historical precedent suggests that if U.S. tax credits are eliminated, Lucid's sales growth could decline sharply [6].