Core Insights - MercadoLibre Inc, known as the "Amazon of Latin America," has been increasing its market share consistently over the past three years, operating the largest online marketplace in the region [2] - The company has a strong network effect that drives compounded growth, with its stock performance up approximately 50% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 4% rise [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, MercadoLibre reported a 37% increase in revenue to $5.9 billion and a 44% rise in net income to $9.74 per diluted share [3] - The gross merchandise volume grew by 40% year-over-year on a currency-neutral basis, with items sold increasing by 28% and unique active buyers rising by 25% [3] - The fintech division saw total payment volume jump 72%, with monthly active users increasing by 31% to 64 million, managing over $230 billion in annualized volume [3] Market Position and Valuation - MercadoLibre's stock is currently trading around $2,540 per share, with a forward earnings multiple of 45x and a forward sales multiple of 4.2x, compared to Amazon's 33x earnings and 3.1x sales [4] - The company's market capitalization stands at $129 billion, indicating significant growth potential compared to Amazon's $2.25 trillion and Alibaba's $275 billion [4] Growth Projections - Wall Street anticipates a 30% annual earnings growth over the next four years, making the current trailing P/E ratio of 62 appear justifiable [5] - If growth targets are met, MercadoLibre's market capitalization could exceed $300 billion within four years [5] Industry Trends - From 2021 to 2024, MercadoLibre's revenue grew at a CAGR of 43%, ending last year with over 100 million buyers and 60 million fintech users, still a small fraction of the region's 451 million adults [7] - E-commerce penetration in Latin America remains in the mid-teens, significantly lower than U.S. levels, with cash usage declining rapidly [8] - The e-commerce market in Latin America is projected to grow by 21% in 2025, reaching $769 billion, and is expected to approach $1 trillion by 2027 [8] Strategic Positioning - MercadoLibre is leveraging multiple megatrends, including e-commerce, fintech, logistics, and digital advertising, in a fast-growing region [9] - The company reported 38% revenue growth and 90% GAAP earnings growth in 2024, with expectations for continued growth [9]
MercadoLibre Stock Is Up 50%—Buy, Hold, Or Sell?