Group 1 - The trend of "steepening" in the U.S. Treasury yield curve has become more pronounced, with the difference between the 30-year and 5-year Treasury yields exceeding 100 basis points, reaching 102 basis points, the highest level since 2021 [1] - The decline in short-term Treasury yields is occurring at a faster pace than that of long-term yields, reflecting increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and a shift of funds from short-term to long-term Treasuries [1][2] - The difference in yields between the 30-year and 5-year Treasuries has expanded significantly from around 40 basis points at the beginning of the year to over 100 basis points in recent weeks, indicating a notable change in market sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, with the probability of a rate cut in July rising to 20.7% from 14.5% a week prior, and the probability for September rising to 90.2% from 69.6% [2] - There is a divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing of a rate cut, with some supporting a cut in July while others maintain a cautious stance [2][3] - Overall, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut by 2025 is increasing, with potential cuts expected in September or October [3]
市场对美联储降息预期增强 美债收益率曲线愈发“陡峭”
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang·2025-06-27 13:33