美国5月消费者支出因关税规避效应消退而减少，经济前景蒙上阴影

Core Insights - In May, U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly declined by 0.1%, contrasting with economists' expectations of a 0.1% increase, primarily due to the fading effects of preemptive purchases made to avoid tariffs [1][4] - The overall economic situation is distorted by extensive tariff policies, leading to significant data discrepancies, with the first quarter seeing a record trade deficit and a 0.5% annualized decline in GDP [4][8] - The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% in May, maintaining a moderate inflation rate, while the core PCE inflation rate increased from 2.6% to 2.7% [5][7] Consumer Spending and Income - Consumer spending growth was nearly stagnant, with a mere 0.5% increase, marking the slowest growth rate since Q2 2020, despite some preemptive purchasing [4][5] - Personal income decreased by $10.96 billion in May, a 0.4% decline, largely due to reduced government transfer payments, although wages showed resilience with a 0.4% increase [5][7] - The personal savings rate fell to 4.5%, indicating a potential strain on consumer financial health [5][7] Inflation and Economic Outlook - The core PCE index's increase suggests persistent inflationary pressures, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates [5][8] - The combination of weak consumer spending and ongoing inflation is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in the near term [4][5] - The economic uncertainty stemming from tariff policies continues to impact growth prospects, necessitating close monitoring of consumer spending and inflation trends [8]