Plug Power's Equipment Revenues Decline: Is the Risk Priced In?

Core Insights - Plug Power Inc. is experiencing challenges in its core product categories, with a 7% year-over-year decline in revenues from equipment and related products in Q1 2025, totaling $63.5 million [1][7] Revenue Performance - The revenue decline is attributed to reduced demand for hydrogen infrastructure, cryogenic equipment, fuel cell systems (GenDrive), and engineered oil and gas equipment [2] - Hydrogen infrastructure revenues fell by $6.6 million due to a decrease in installations, with only one site completed compared to three in the previous year [2] - GenDrive sales decreased from 1,298 units to 848 units, resulting in a revenue drop of $2.3 million [2] - Cryogenic equipment sales declined due to slower project progress, while engineered oil and gas equipment sales dropped by $2.7 million following the Frames acquisition [2] Growth Areas - In contrast, Plug Power's electrolyzer product line saw a significant increase of 581.7% year-over-year in Q1, driven by higher deliveries across North America, Europe, and Asia [3] - A notable three gigawatt deal with Allied Green Ammonia in Australia and over eight gigawatts in design contracts indicate a rising global demand for green hydrogen, which may help mitigate weaknesses in legacy product lines [3] Competitive Landscape - FuelCell Energy, a peer, reported product revenues of $13.0 million in Q2 2025, with total revenues increasing by 67% to $37.4 million, supported by service agreements [4] - Bloom Energy Corporation also showed growth, with product and service revenues rising by 26.5% year-over-year in Q1 2025, leading to a total revenue increase of 38.6% [5] Stock Performance - Plug Power's shares have declined by 42.8% year-to-date, contrasting with the industry's growth of 12.1% [6] - The company is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of negative 2.45X, significantly lower than the industry average of 21.16X, and holds a Value Score of F [9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Plug Power's bottom line for Q2 2025 has seen an increase over the past 60 days, with current estimates at -$0.15 for Q2 and -$0.59 for the current year [10][11]