Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-06-29 04:10Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The U.S. stock market showed strong performance with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching historical highs, driven by hopes for further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve amid easing geopolitical tensions [1][5] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a key inflation measure, rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a slight acceleration in inflation [2][3] - Initial jobless claims decreased from 246,000 to 236,000, but concerns about a weak labor market persist as consumer spending fell by 0.1% in May, marking the first decline since January [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends and Sector Performance - The technology sector rebounded significantly, with the Nasdaq entering a technical bull market, having risen over 20% from its April lows, driven by strong performances from companies like Nvidia [5][6] - The communication services sector led gains with a 6.2% increase, while technology and consumer discretionary sectors also saw over 4% growth [5] - Despite the overall market strength, retail investors have reduced their purchases of major tech stocks, with their share of total inflows dropping from approximately 41% in early April to around 23% by mid-June [5][6] Group 3: Future Projections and Geopolitical Considerations - The market anticipates a near 65 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, with a greater than 50% chance of a third rate cut occurring [4] - The geopolitical landscape remains a concern, as ongoing trade tensions and potential changes in U.S. trade policy could impact market sentiment and economic stability [7] - Analysts suggest that the market will likely remain concentrated in technology and AI sectors, driven by strong fundamentals and systematic buying strategies, unless significant policy or geopolitical events occur [6]