国际能源署最新报告预计：全球石油市场未来几年供应充足

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) report indicates that the global oil supply is expected to grow significantly, driven by production expansions in Saudi Arabia and the U.S., with an increase of 5.1 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, reaching 114.7 million bpd, which far exceeds the anticipated demand growth of 2.5 million bpd [1] - The report highlights that geopolitical risks are a major concern for oil supply security, despite the forecast of sufficient supply in the coming years [1] - Global oil production capacity is projected to increase by 1.8 million bpd, primarily from the UAE and Iraq, while global natural gas liquids production is expected to rise by 2.3 million bpd, accounting for nearly 50% of the increase in global oil capacity [1] Group 2 - The report predicts that from 2024 to 2030, global oil demand will grow by 2.5 million bpd, but the growth rate will decline annually due to slowing economic growth and the acceleration of electric alternatives in the transportation sector [2] - The shift towards diversified fuels in transportation and power generation is expected to impact oil demand, with the petrochemical industry becoming the main driver of oil demand growth starting in 2026 [2] - By 2030, global polymer and synthetic fiber production is projected to consume 18.4 million bpd of oil, representing over one-sixth of global oil consumption [2] Group 3 - Emerging economies are expected to see strong demand growth, contrasting with the declining demand in developed economies, particularly in OECD countries, where oil consumption is projected to decrease by 1.7 million bpd by 2030 [3] - The report notes that falling oil prices will suppress upstream capacity expansion, with upstream investment expected to decline to approximately $420 billion in 2025, a decrease of 6% [3] - The refining sector is anticipated to face challenges due to weak growth in refined product demand, with global demand expected to peak at 86.3 million bpd in 2027, only increasing by 710,000 bpd from 2024 [3]