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国际清算银行警告:关税恐致美国通胀抬头 美联储面临严峻挑战
智通财经网·2025-06-29 23:49

Core Viewpoint - The International Bank for Settlements (BIS) warns that inflation in the U.S. may resurface amid global economic turmoil caused by President Trump's trade policies, presenting significant challenges for the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The BIS report highlights the current economic uncertainty, which has reached levels typically associated with crises, primarily due to increased import tariffs imposed by the White House [2][3]. - The growth outlook has weakened, with heightened risks to consumer prices, public finances, and financial system stability [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation Risks - The report emphasizes inflation risks, particularly how trade disruptions could impact economies already facing pressures from aging populations and labor shortages [3][4]. - There is a concern that consumer sensitivity to price changes has increased post-pandemic, which could pose new challenges to price stability [3][4]. Group 3: Debt and Financial Stability - The report notes unprecedented debt accumulation in some countries, with interest payments for OECD member countries reaching 4% of GDP last year and expected to rise [3][4]. - Inflation and financial stability risks often stem from pressures in sovereign bond markets, which could exacerbate refinancing challenges and disrupt inflation expectations [3][4]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The BIS suggests a series of policy measures to promote growth and productivity, including labor market reforms, reducing bureaucracy, eliminating trade barriers, and increasing public investment [5]. - The report advises central banks to carefully balance growth and inflation risks, noting that the era of consumers easily absorbing price shocks appears to be over [5].