大变局！首现负增长

Core Insights - The number of securities representatives (保代) has experienced a decline for the first time in three years, with a reduction of over 300 individuals from the end of 2024 to mid-2025, reflecting a shift in the industry due to market conditions and regulatory changes [2][3] - The decline in the number of保代 is attributed to a shrinking IPO market and stricter regulatory policies, leading to a transformation in the operational logic of保代 from a focus on project advancement to a quality-oriented approach [2][4] - Despite the challenges, there are opportunities for保代 to leverage their skills in risk control and compliance in other sectors, such as joining listed companies [2][8] Summary by Sections Decline in保代 Numbers - As of June 28, 2025, the total number of保代 registered in the securities industry is 8,476, down from 8,799 at the end of 2024, marking a significant shift in the industry [3] - The decline is seen as a result of both market self-regulation and policy direction, with increased regulatory scrutiny and a reduction in IPO projects leading to a decrease in demand for保代 [3][4] Market Conditions and Financial Performance - The overall underwriting amount for securities companies in 2024 was 10.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, with equity financing dropping by 72.8% to 247.6 billion yuan [4] - Major securities firms have reported significant declines in investment banking revenue, with some firms experiencing drops of over 40% [4] Regulatory Changes and Professional Standards - Regulatory measures have intensified, with new rules increasing the accountability of保代, leading to a shift in focus towards risk management and compliance [5][6] - The introduction of a new D-class negative list for保代 has heightened the stakes for compliance, with 51 individuals penalized and added to the C-class list this year [5][6] Shift in Professional Logic - The operational logic of保代 is transitioning from a "project advancement" mindset to a "bottom-line thinking" approach, emphasizing thorough due diligence and compliance [6][7] - This change is expected to enhance the quality of the market in the long term, despite increasing short-term costs [6][7] Career Transitions and Future Directions - Many保代 are exploring alternative career paths, including positions in public service and corporate roles, as the industry undergoes a transformation [8][9] - To adapt to the new environment,保代 are encouraged to develop compliance, industry research, and cross-departmental collaboration skills [9]