伊以宣布停火，油价大幅回落 | 投研报告

Core Viewpoint - The oil and petrochemical sector is experiencing a significant price drop due to the recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran, with WTI crude oil futures falling by 11.99% and Brent oil futures by 12.95% from June 20 to June 27, 2025 [2][4] Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran was announced on June 24, 2025, following a statement from U.S. President Trump on June 23, indicating a potential for renewed talks with Iran [2][3] - Short-term oil prices are expected to fluctuate based on Middle Eastern geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations, but a return to previous high prices is unlikely without significant conflict [2][3] - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have decreased unexpectedly, and the summer travel season is anticipated to boost demand for gasoline and jet fuel [2][3] - China's gasoline and diesel supply is low, with inventory levels also at a low point, which, combined with increased travel during the summer, is expected to support gasoline consumption [2][3] - Trump's comments suggest a potential easing of sanctions on Iranian oil, which could lead to an increase in Iranian oil supply [2][3] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 is crucial, as eight member countries are gradually lifting production cuts, which may lead to increased global oil supply pressure [2][3] Fluorochemical Sector - The fluorochemical sector is benefiting from strong downstream demand, particularly in air conditioning, with refrigerant prices remaining high [3] - The production of second-generation refrigerants is continuing to decrease, while third-generation refrigerants have limited production increases, leading to a tight supply situation that supports higher prices [3] - Domestic air conditioning production is expected to grow significantly due to government subsidies, with a year-on-year increase of 29.3% and 22.8% in June and July 2025, respectively [3] - The automotive sector is also seeing growth, with production and sales figures for the first five months of 2025 showing increases of 12.7% and 10.9%, respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The oil and petrochemical sector is advised to be monitored closely due to the volatility driven by geopolitical factors, with a long-term focus on fundamentals [4] - Companies with resilient earnings, such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, are recommended for investment [4] - In the fluorochemical sector, companies leading in third-generation refrigerant production and upstream fluorite resource companies are suggested for attention [4] - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted, with a positive outlook on inventory reduction and domestic substitution trends [4]