需求处于低位 短期内钢材价格或将弱势震荡运行

Core Insights - Domestic steel prices have decreased during the week of June 16-20, with both long and flat steel price indices showing declines, where the drop in long steel prices was less than that of flat steel prices [1] Price Index Summary - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) for the week was 90.09 points, down 0.40 points week-on-week, a decrease of 0.44%. Compared to the end of last month, it fell by 0.71 points (0.78% decrease), and from the end of last year, it decreased by 7.38 points (7.57% decrease). Year-on-year, it dropped by 14.14 points (13.57% decrease) [1] - The long steel price index was 92 points, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.39 points (0.42% decrease), a drop of 0.30 points (0.33% decrease) from the end of last month, and a decline of 8.22 points (8.20% decrease) from the end of last year. Year-on-year, it fell by 14.92 points (13.95% decrease) [1] - The flat steel price index was 88.25 points, down 0.45 points week-on-week (0.51% decrease), down 0.94 points (1.05% decrease) from the end of last month, and down 7.30 points (7.64% decrease) from the end of last year. Year-on-year, it decreased by 14.06 points (13.74% decrease) [1] Regional Price Index Summary - All six major regions in China saw a week-on-week decline in steel price indices, with the Northwest region experiencing the largest drop and the Southwest region the smallest. For instance, the North China steel price index was 88.99 points, down 0.44 points (0.49% decrease) week-on-week [2] - The Northeast region's steel price index was 88.77 points, down 0.40 points (0.45% decrease) week-on-week. The East China index was 90.59 points, down 0.43 points (0.47% decrease) week-on-week [2] - The Central South region's index was 91.90 points, down 0.43 points (0.46% decrease) week-on-week, while the Southwest region's index was 90.88 points, down 0.30 points (0.33% decrease) week-on-week. The Northwest region's index was 90.67 points, down 0.59 points (0.65% decrease) week-on-week [2] Price Changes by Product - All eight major steel product prices decreased compared to the end of last month, with the largest drop in cold-rolled sheets and the smallest in rebar. For example, the price of 6mm high wire was 3267 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton (0.24% decrease) [3] - The price of 16mm rebar was 3076 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton (0.19% decrease). The price of 20mm medium-thick plates was 3417 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY/ton (0.73% decrease) [3] - The price of 1mm cold-rolled sheets was 3745 CNY/ton, down 71 CNY/ton (1.86% decrease), while the price of 1mm galvanized sheets was 4146 CNY/ton, down 29 CNY/ton (0.69% decrease) [3] Cost Analysis - In May, the average import price of iron ore was 96.24 USD/ton, down 1.86 USD/ton (1.90% decrease) month-on-month. Compared to the end of last year, it decreased by 1.49 USD/ton (1.52% decrease) [4] - The domestic iron concentrate price was 857 CNY/ton, down 31 CNY/ton (3.49% decrease) from the end of last month. The price of coking coal was 1196 CNY/ton, down 82 CNY/ton (6.42% decrease) [4] - The price of coke was 1216 CNY/ton, down 90 CNY/ton (6.89% decrease), while scrap steel was priced at 2338 CNY/ton, down 14 CNY/ton (0.60% decrease) [4] International Market Overview - In May, the CRU international steel price index was 195.1 points, down 4.5 points (2.3% decrease) month-on-month. Compared to the end of last year, it increased by 14.5 points (8.0% increase) [5] - The CRU long steel price index was 195.6 points, down 1.9 points (1.0% decrease) month-on-month, while the CRU flat steel price index was 194.9 points, down 5.8 points (2.9% decrease) month-on-month [5] - The demand side remains weak due to seasonal effects, indicating that steel prices may continue to experience weak fluctuations in the short term [5]