低库存+弱供给 京津冀部分建筑钢材为何会缺货

Core Viewpoint - The construction steel inventory in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) region has significantly decreased compared to previous years, with current levels lower than the same period last year, indicating a tightening supply situation in the market [1][4] Group 1: Inventory and Production - As of June 20, the social inventory of construction steel in the Jing-Jin-Ji region has increased slightly by 2.11% week-on-week but has decreased by 25.98% year-on-year [1] - The operating rate of rebar production lines in the Jing-Jin-Ji region has remained below 50% since the beginning of the year, with a total rebar output of 4.75 million tons in the first five months, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [1][2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The local steel resources in the Jing-Jin-Ji region are limited, leading to higher prices and some reliance on external steel resources to fill the gap [2][3] - The price of rebar in the Jing-Jin-Ji region is significantly higher compared to other regions, with price differences of around 100 yuan per ton compared to Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Liaoning [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the expected decline in construction steel production, short-term changes are minimal, and external steel supply may increase [4] - The current low inventory levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji region are unlikely to see significant growth in the short term, maintaining a relatively low position [4]