NCIC(SZ:002246) Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-06-30 01:19Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant increase in China's nitrocellulose exports, with a total export value of 327 million yuan from January to May 2025, representing a 99% year-on-year growth, and an average price of 33,700 yuan per ton, up 37% year-on-year [2][3]. Group 1: Export Performance - In May 2025, the monthly export value of nitrocellulose reached 78 million yuan, further increasing month-on-month, with a price of 36,600 yuan per ton, setting a new recent high [3]. - The total export value for the first five months of 2025 was 327 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 99%, and an average price of 33,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a 37% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in prices is attributed to expanding demand and shrinking supply, influenced by ongoing global conflicts, leading to a growing need for energetic nitrocellulose [3]. - Global nitrocellulose production capacity is projected to decrease from 261,000 tons in 2023 to 198,000 tons in 2024, a reduction of 24% [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - It is anticipated that in June 2025, domestic nitrocellulose exports may see a rise in price but a decrease in volume due to further contractions in production capacity following an explosion at a domestic facility [3]. - The core target in the nitrocellulose industry is Beihua Co., which maintains a leading position in production and sales globally, with over 50% market share domestically and around 15% internationally [4][5].