陶冬：一不小心，日本实现了财政盈余？

Group 1 - Japan has become the country with the highest inflation among the G7, leading to increased living costs for voters while easing the government's fiscal burden [1][3] - The U.S. PCE data showed a decline, with core personal consumption decreasing by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating a broad weakening in consumer spending [1] - Wage growth in the U.S. increased by 0.4% month-on-month in May, suggesting that while consumption is weak, there is still income support [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision-makers are divided on the future interest rate trajectory, with some advocating for rate cuts while others believe they are unnecessary [2] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates, emphasizing the need to understand the impact of tariff policies on the economy [2] - Japan's government is experiencing a fiscal surplus for the first time in 17 years, attributed to increased tax revenue from rising inflation [3][4] Group 3 - Japan's long-term bond market is facing distortions due to insufficient demand, prompting the government to reduce the issuance of ultra-long bonds [4] - The IMF predicts that by 2030, Japan's ratio of interest payments on national debt to GDP will double, not accounting for increased military spending [4][5] - Domestic inflation has risen significantly, posing challenges for local financial institutions as demand for long-term bonds declines [5]