Group 1 - The US dollar has fallen to its lowest exchange rate against the euro in nearly four years, driven by optimistic expectations regarding US trade agreements and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [1][2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by September has increased to 92.4%, up from approximately 70% a week prior [1] - President Trump's abrupt halt in trade negotiations with Canada has introduced uncertainty into the market, countering the previously optimistic sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - Chris Weston from Pepperstone noted that the market is pricing in a definite rate cut in September, with the upcoming US monthly employment report being a significant risk event [2] - Trump's ongoing criticism of Fed Chairman Powell and his desire to lower the benchmark interest rate to 1% adds pressure on the dollar [2] - The proposed large-scale tax cuts and spending bill, which could increase national debt by $3.3 trillion over ten years, is under Senate review [2] Group 3 - The euro has slightly decreased to $1.1716, just below its highest level since September 2021 [3] - The British pound remains stable at $1.3709, close to its peak of $1.37701, a level not seen since October 2021 [3] - The Australian dollar has risen to $0.6537, recovering towards its highest point in seven and a half months [3][4] Group 4 - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia believe that the dollar's performance this week will be influenced by US trade dynamics, expressing skepticism about the rapid conclusion of trade agreements [4] - Positive news regarding the completion of some trade agreements could support the dollar against major currencies like the euro, yen, and pound [4]
贸易协议曙光增强美国降息预期 美元兑欧元、英镑跌至四年新低
智通财经网·2025-06-30 04:11