施罗德投资：油价需突破100美元才足以构成通胀威胁

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that oil prices need to rise by 50% or more to pose a significant threat to overall inflation, which would require Brent crude prices to exceed $100 per barrel [1] - The relationship between oil prices and inflation indicates that a 10% increase in oil prices only contributes approximately 0.1% to overall inflation [1] - Despite ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts disrupting financial markets, the actual impact may be less than investors expect, as market reactions remain calm [1][2] Group 2 - Current global crude oil supply is ample, with prices around $70 per barrel, which is historically low [2] - Oil prices have already incorporated about a 20% "geopolitical risk premium," reflecting market calculations of potential conflict escalation [2] - The potential response from Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz is crucial, but a complete blockade of this international waterway is impractical [2] Group 3 - Since June 13, Brent crude prices have risen by approximately 10%, which could lead to energy inflation slightly above 5% for the G7 countries over the next year [3] - This increase in energy prices is not expected to trigger broader inflationary pressures [3]