后续基本面偏弱预期压力下 PVC期货将承压运行

Industry Overview - As of June 26, the average profit margin for calcium carbide method PVC production enterprises was -504 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton month-on-month; the average profit margin for ethylene method PVC production enterprises was 693 CNY/ton, down 53 CNY/ton month-on-month [1] - On June 30, the PVC market in Hangzhou showed a subdued atmosphere, with spot prices fluctuating slightly; prices for calcium carbide method PVC ranged from 4780 to 4880 CNY/ton, while ethylene method prices were around 4920 to 4950 CNY/ton [1] - The 28th ICIS and Resource Wise World Chlor-Alkali Conference highlighted that various factors are suppressing PVC prices, pushing many PVC producers, especially in the U.S., to unsustainable profit margins [1] Institutional Insights - Guangzhou Futures noted that PVC is facing supply pressure due to the end of maintenance and the large-scale production of nearly 2 million tons of new capacity; however, the potential delay of India's PVC import BIS policy may benefit future exports [2] - Short-term speculative stockpiling demand is increasing due to low prices, coupled with stable costs from calcium carbide, leading to a slight upward price trend for PVC [2] - Wuzhou Futures indicated that profit pressures for enterprises are rising, with high production levels despite increased maintenance; expectations of new production units coming online and weak downstream demand contribute to a bearish outlook [3] - The anticipated anti-dumping measures in India may lead to a slowdown in exports, further pressuring the basic supply-demand dynamics [3]