【央行圆桌汇】美联储提前“换帅”传闻笼罩市场（2025年6月30日）

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in May, slightly exceeding market expectations of 2.6%. Actual personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year, while personal income decreased by 0.4%, the largest drop since 2021 [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, emphasizing the strong U.S. economy and the uncertainties brought by high tariffs. He indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates [2] - The Federal Reserve is considering a potential rate cut as early as July if inflation continues to decline or if the labor market weakens. The impact of tariffs on price pressures appears to be offset [2] - The Federal Reserve is planning to relax a key capital requirement that has been criticized by large banks, allowing them to hold more U.S. Treasury securities [3] European Central Bank and Other Central Banks - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde called for the implementation of a digital euro, highlighting its importance for European financial sovereignty [4] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey noted that uncertainties regarding global economic structural changes are affecting the foreign exchange market, leading investors to reconsider their positions [4] - The Bank of Japan's committee member expressed concerns about accelerating inflation, suggesting that the central bank may need to raise interest rates decisively despite uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [4] Market Observations - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the U.S. dollar, primarily due to a more dovish reassessment of interest rate expectations by the Bank of Japan [7] - RBC Wealth Management forecasts that the Bank of England may cut rates by a total of 75 basis points by the end of 2025, contingent on further declines in inflation [7] - The Mexican central bank voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a potential slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts [6]