贵金属期货涨跌不一 沪金主力跌幅为0.63%

Core Viewpoint - Domestic precious metal futures experienced a decline, while international precious metals saw an increase in prices, indicating a divergence in market trends [1][2]. Price Movements - As of June 30, the main contract for Shanghai gold was priced at 767.58 CNY per gram, reflecting a decrease of 0.63% - The main contract for Shanghai silver was priced at 768.58 CNY per kilogram, with a decline of 0.54% - In contrast, COMEX gold was priced at 3306.10 USD per ounce, marking an increase of 0.61% - COMEX silver reached 36.44 USD per ounce, up by 0.75% [1][2]. Market Expectations - Weak U.S. economic data has heightened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a 92.5% probability of a cut in September, and an anticipated total reduction of 65-75 basis points for the year [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that more time is needed to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, while consumer confidence data showed a decline in inflation expectations, further supporting rate cut speculation [4]. Recent Trends - Last week, COMEX gold prices fell by 2.90% to 3286.10 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 1.50% to 768.64 CNY per gram - The probability of maintaining interest rates in July is at 81.9%, with an 18.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a cumulative 76% probability of a total cut of 25 basis points by September [5].