国际油价创2023年后最大单周跌幅！后市怎么走

Group 1 - Geopolitical risks are shifting market focus back to fundamental factors, with OPEC+ potentially increasing production in August and developments in US "reciprocal tariffs" being key influences on future oil prices [1] - As of June 30, WTI crude oil futures fell by 0.52% to $65.18 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.25% to $66.63 per barrel, reversing gains made during the Israel-Iran conflict [1] - The conflict between Israel and Iran, which included airstrikes and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, initially caused Brent prices to spike to around $80 per barrel before dropping significantly after a ceasefire announcement [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan Futures noted that a peace agreement between Israel and Iran led to a significant drop in oil prices, with future price movements dependent on geopolitical negotiations, OPEC+ production rates, and tariff discussions [2] - The US is entering a new phase of high shale oil production, with the EIA projecting an increase of 400,000 barrels per day to reach 13.6 million barrels per day, putting pressure on other oil-producing countries [2] - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August and 274,000 barrels per day in September, with a complete removal of previous voluntary cuts by the end of the year [2] Group 3 - There are concerns about weak global oil demand, which may further pressure oil prices, especially with the upcoming deadline for the US to suspend "reciprocal tariffs" [3] - If the US can successfully negotiate agreements with other countries, it could lead to an increase in oil demand by at least 300,000 barrels, although short-term trade negotiations may hinder this [3] - Recent economic forecasts from the IMF and OECD have downgraded global economic expectations for the next two years, indicating that oil demand may be suppressed [3]