产地供给并不宽松 菜籽油继续下行空间收窄

Core Insights - Canadian canola oil prices remained stable on June 30, with July shipment priced at $1,050 per ton and September shipment at $1,030 per ton [1] - Domestic canola oil prices in China showed slight variations, with prices ranging from 9,480 to 9,620 yuan per ton across different regions [1] - The futures market indicated a slight decline in canola oil prices, with the main contract closing at 9,415 yuan per ton, down 0.50% [1] Group 1: Canadian Market Data - The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association reported a decrease in canola seed crushing volume to 831,193 tons in May 2025, down 9.59% month-on-month [2] - Canola oil production in Canada also fell to 353,218 tons, reflecting a 9.5% decrease compared to the previous month [2] - The C&F price for Canadian canola for July shipment increased by $1 to $595 per ton, while the August shipment also saw a $1 increase to $585 per ton [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - The analysis from Forward Futures indicated that the significant drop in crude oil prices negatively impacts the profit margins for blending canola oil with biodiesel [3] - Domestic supply and demand for canola oil remain relatively loose, with expectations of increased production for the new season and improved trade relations between China and Canada [3] - The demand for biodiesel in the U.S. and Brazil is rising, leading to increased consumption of vegetable oils, while the oil-meal ratio is favoring canola meal, which may exert further downward pressure on canola prices [3]