创历史新高的美股面临“盈利考验”！高盛预警标普500 EPS增幅或创两年来最低

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs highlights that the upcoming Q2 earnings season will be a critical period for assessing corporate profitability amid the ongoing trade war initiated by the Trump administration, with a projected 10% impact on profits due to tariff increases [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, both at historical highs, are expected to face an "earnings test" as companies attempt to pass on increased costs to consumers, although the effectiveness of this cost transfer remains uncertain [1][4] - The earnings growth rate for S&P 500 constituents is anticipated to slow significantly, with a projected year-over-year EPS growth of only 2.6% for the April to June period, marking the lowest growth rate in nearly two years [4] Group 2 - The divergence in stock performance among companies is evident, with General Mills experiencing a 5% drop due to tariff-related cost pressures, while Nike's stock surged 15% thanks to effective supply chain management [1] - Market analysts note that the unprecedented trade disputes are impacting corporate profits through both cost inflation and demand suppression, leading to a 19% decline in the S&P 500 from its peak in April [4] - Institutional investors are becoming increasingly cautious regarding high-valuation tech giants, with some funds shifting towards consumer staples and manufacturing sectors that possess better cost transfer capabilities [4]