“大而美”法案将进入关键投票阶段，特朗普减税计划恐使共和党分裂

Core Points - The "Big and Beautiful" tax reform pushed by President Trump has entered the final debate and voting stage, but faces significant challenges within the Republican Party [1][3] - The Senate's current version of the bill is projected to increase the national debt by over $3.2 trillion over the next decade [4][6] - Public opinion is cautious, with 49% of Americans opposing the bill, and it is expected to disproportionately benefit high-income earners while negatively impacting lower-income groups [7] Group 1: Legislative Process - The Senate will initiate a lengthy voting process where unlimited amendments can be proposed, with a critical threshold of no more than three dissenting votes from Republican senators to avoid bill failure [1][3] - The bill's core components include extending current tax cuts, increasing defense and border security budgets, while cutting spending on healthcare and food assistance programs [3] Group 2: Internal Party Disagreements - Significant divisions exist within the Republican Party regarding the bill, with some members expressing concerns over cuts to social welfare programs and the potential financial strain on states [3][5] - Senator Thom Tillis warned that the bill could lead to substantial funding losses for North Carolina, particularly affecting hospitals and rural communities [4] Group 3: Economic Impact - Experts express skepticism about the bill's economic benefits, noting that it may exacerbate the national deficit in a high-interest rate environment [6] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the bill will increase the debt-to-GDP ratio by approximately 7 percentage points by 2034, potentially reaching 124% [6] Group 4: Public Sentiment and Political Consequences - Polls indicate that a majority of Americans are against the bill, with concerns that it may lead to millions losing health insurance, which could have significant political repercussions for the Republican Party [7]