美联储选角“宫斗戏”持续上演，中美利差走向何方？

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair by President Trump is expected to significantly influence interest rate cut expectations and U.S. Treasury yields [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Candidates - President Trump is considering three main candidates for the Federal Reserve chair: Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent, and Christopher Waller [1][2]. - Warsh is seen as a hawkish candidate who advocates for monetary policy independence and prioritizes balance sheet reduction [2][3]. - Bessent is recognized for his coordination skills during chaotic tariff policies and has a dovish stance, favoring close alignment between monetary and fiscal policies [3]. - Waller, a recent appointee by Trump, has expressed a desire for immediate rate cuts and emphasizes data-driven decision-making [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The market currently implies a 76% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar index [2]. - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve may cut rates 1 to 2 times this year, depending on inflation and employment data [4][5]. - The terminal rate is anticipated to be around 3%, with the current federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% [5]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yields - Short to medium-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline, with a preference for 5 to 10-year maturities over 30-year bonds [1][4][5]. - The market is currently experiencing a sell-off in Treasuries, but analysts remain optimistic about future yield declines [5]. - The demand for 30-year bonds may decrease due to high U.S. debt levels, leading to more issuance of shorter-term bonds by the Treasury [5]. Group 4: China-U.S. Interest Rate Differential - The future changes in the China-U.S. interest rate differential are likely to depend more on developments in the U.S. [6]. - Chinese government bond yields are expected to remain stable, with the People's Bank of China maintaining a flexible approach to monetary policy [6]. - Analysts suggest that the Chinese yuan may continue to appreciate against the U.S. dollar, supported by strong export performance and an undervalued exchange rate [7].