美元面临多重压力，触及两年低点！美联储降息预期高涨

Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar is facing multiple pressures, with the dollar index hitting a low of 96.98, the lowest since March 2022, due to rising optimism around US trade agreements and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The US economic data for May indicates a decline in personal consumption and income, raising concerns about economic growth, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] - The Senate's modifications to the tax bill are projected to increase the US debt burden by trillions, complicating the passage of the bill for Republican lawmakers [1] Group 2: European Market Sentiment - There is a significant shift in investor confidence towards European markets, with over $100 billion flowing into European equity funds since 2025, a threefold increase, while the US market has seen an outflow of $87 billion, doubling from the previous year [6] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde noted that market forces and investor confidence are increasingly favoring Europe [6] Group 3: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar, Euro, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc all showed slight declines against the US dollar across various time frames, indicating a general weakening of these currencies [4][6] - The Euro is sensitive to inflation data, which could impact expectations for European Central Bank rate cuts, with the market currently not expecting a rate cut until December [7] Group 4: Canadian Dollar Outlook - The Canadian dollar is experiencing renewed market optimism due to the resumption of trade negotiations with the US, following the withdrawal of a digital tax that had previously stalled talks [11] - Despite a surprising 0.1% decline in Canada's April GDP, optimistic market sentiment and expectations of potential US rate cuts are expected to support the Canadian dollar in the short term [11] Group 5: Swiss Franc Weakness - The USD/CHF pair is trading weakly, with the Swiss franc hitting a ten-year low, as the KOF leading indicator fell to 96.1, significantly below market expectations [12] - The Swiss National Bank has lowered interest rates to 0% and indicated the possibility of entering negative interest territory if downside risks increase, reflecting ongoing economic weakness in Switzerland [12]