Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-06-30 13:48Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is expected to strengthen if the US government announces more trade agreements, potentially reaching a resistance level of 0.6700 against the USD, while negative news could lead to a decline towards a support level around 0.6428 [1] - The market anticipates a 92% probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting interest rates in July, following moderate inflation data from May [1] - Citigroup analysts noted that the yield spread of Eurozone government bonds shows resilience amid geopolitical tensions, indicating stable market performance despite uncertainties [1] Group 2 - ANZ's survey indicates that New Zealand businesses showed increased confidence in June, with 46.3% expecting economic improvement over the next year, up from 36.6% in May [2] - Despite the rise in confidence, the actual operating conditions for businesses remain weak, highlighting a disparity between sentiment and reality [2] - Barclays reported an increase in risk premium for dollar-denominated assets in the first half of the year due to US policy volatility, while US Treasury yields are expected to potentially exceed 5% [2] Group 3 - The UK economy experienced a 0.7% growth in Q1 2025, driven mainly by business investment and net trade, but this growth may not be sustainable [3] - A significant drop of over 30% in UK exports to the US in April indicates weakening external demand, particularly from the US market [3] - Concerns about the impact of tariffs on US prices and inflation expectations are rising, with the Federal Reserve's upcoming consumer price report being crucial for future monetary policy direction [3]