【发展论衡】全球产业链的新趋势与中国对策

Group 1 - The global supply chain is undergoing significant changes due to various factors, including trade wars initiated by the US, leading to a shift from globalization to diversification and regionalization [1][3][4] - Since the 1990s, the global supply chain has transitioned into an integrated era, with global trade as a percentage of GDP increasing from 30% to approximately 52% by 2008, while the share of intermediate goods trade rose from 9% to around 29% [2] - Recent events such as trade friction, the pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have accelerated the transition towards a diversified and regionalized supply chain, with countries increasingly focusing on localizing production in critical industries [3][4] Group 2 - China's manufacturing capabilities have improved, with a decrease in the share of processing trade from 64.1% to 18.2% by 2024, while general trade with higher added value has increased [5] - The export share of low-value products from China has declined, with textiles dropping from 15% to 10%, while high-value products like aircraft and chemical products have seen an increase in export share [5][6] - The "new three items" (solar cells, lithium-ion batteries, and new energy vehicles) have become significant growth points for China's exports, with China producing 80% of global solar panels and 76% of lithium-ion batteries by 2024 [6] Group 3 - China's industrial development is focusing on addressing weaknesses in key areas such as semiconductor manufacturing equipment and high-end chips, which currently have low self-sufficiency rates [7][8] - The global supply chain's new trends may lead to four major impacts on the capital market, including a shift of capital towards emerging markets, increased capital expenditure in manufacturing, and a heightened importance of digitalization and AI in supply chain efficiency [8]