泰国经济增长预期下降

Group 1: Economic Impact of Political Tensions - The border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia has led to a series of restrictions, including the temporary closure of border checkpoints and the suspension of agricultural imports, creating uncertainty in the political and economic landscape of Thailand [1] - The SET index has dropped approximately 4.5% since late May, reaching a new low of 1068.73 points on June 19, the lowest since March 2020 [1] - The Kasikorn Research Center has revised Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.5% to 1.4%, warning of a potential "technical recession" in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Tariff Concerns - Thailand's economy is heavily reliant on exports, with 60% of GDP dependent on foreign trade; the U.S. is the largest export market, accounting for 18.3% of total exports, valued at $54.96 billion [2] - The U.S. has announced a 36% import tariff on Thai goods, which could negatively impact Thailand's economy; negotiations between the two countries have seen limited progress [2] - Thailand's Commerce Minister has submitted a revised proposal to the U.S. aimed at reducing tariffs to 10% and increasing imports of U.S. energy, agricultural products, and aircraft [2] Group 3: Tourism Sector Challenges - The tourism sector, a key pillar of Thailand's economy, has seen a decline, with foreign tourist arrivals dropping by 1% year-on-year to 12.9 million from January 1 to May 11, 2025, and total tourism revenue decreasing by 2% to 613.1 billion baht [3] - The Kasikorn Research Center predicts a further decline in foreign tourist arrivals to 34.5 million in 2025, a decrease of 2.8%, with tourism revenue expected to fall by 3% to approximately 1.62 trillion baht [3] - In response to the economic slowdown, the Thai government has implemented various fiscal policies and proposed a comprehensive economic stimulus plan worth 1.57 trillion baht to boost employment and economic activity [3] Group 4: Political Stability and Economic Outlook - Despite a slight easing of tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, the Thai government faces significant internal and external pressures, which could lead to prolonged political struggles and further economic repercussions if not managed carefully [4]