2025上半年债市回顾：债券同比发行增长逾两成 国债收益率先上后下

Market Overview - As of June 30, the bond market showed slight weakness influenced by PMI data, cross-quarter funding, and stock market performance, continuing a narrow fluctuation pattern [1] - Overall, the yield on government bonds is expected to rise initially and then decline in the first half of 2025, with credit spreads mostly narrowing [1] - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with a decrease in funding prices compared to June, where the average decline of DR007 is about 10 basis points [1] Bond Issuance - By June 30, the total issuance of various bonds reached 27.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 24%, with government bonds accounting for 16.93 trillion yuan and credit bonds 10.35 trillion yuan [2] - In the first half of 2025, 98 government bonds were issued, a decrease of 8 from the previous year, with the issuance scale increasing by over 2 trillion yuan [4] - Local government bonds saw an increase in issuance, with 1,086 bonds issued, up 310 from the previous year, and the average issuance rate down by approximately 55 basis points [6] Trading Volume - The total trading volume of cash bonds in the market was 166.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.94%, with credit bonds accounting for 39.63 trillion yuan [16] - The trading volume of interest rate bonds also decreased, with a total of 124.29 trillion yuan traded, down 6.49% year-on-year [17] Yield Trends - The yield curve for government bonds showed an overall decline in the first half of 2025, with significant decreases in the medium to long end, such as a 55.89 basis point drop in the 10-year yield [19] - Local government bonds exhibited similar trends, with the 10-year yield down by 55.51 basis points [21] Institutional Insights - Institutions expect that the funding rates will remain loose in July, but the issuance of local special bonds may create some disturbances in the funding environment [29] - The basic economic trends are still favorable for the bond market, with internal demand needing improvement and external demand facing challenges [30]