特朗普点赞！美股迎里程碑反弹，7月市场有这些看点

Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has reached a new record high in the fastest rebound, gaining over $10 trillion in market value in less than three months after hitting a low in early April [1] - Historical data indicates that July is one of the best-performing months for U.S. stocks, prompting investors to monitor macroeconomic events closely [1] Group 2: Tax Legislation Impact - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" tax bill is expected to influence the market, with hopes to sign it before July 4 [1] - The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, significantly impacting corporate earnings [2] - If the new tax bill is not passed, the expiration of the previous tax cuts in 2025 could lead to a corporate tax increase, negatively affecting stock market reactions [2] Group 3: Trade Policy Sensitivity - Trump's announcement to suspend trade negotiations with Canada caused a sharp decline in U.S. stocks, highlighting the market's sensitivity to trade news [3] - The upcoming expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension on July 9 raises concerns about potential impacts on the U.S. economy, inflation, and corporate profits [3][4] Group 4: Earnings Season Outlook - The earnings season starting in mid-July will provide insights into how companies are managing new tariffs and macroeconomic challenges [6] - The S&P 500 index's recent rebound has been driven by a few large-cap stocks, creating concentrated risk in the market [6] - Analysts have improved their earnings forecasts for the S&P 500 as concerns over the trade war's impact on corporate profits have eased [6] Group 5: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Upcoming labor data releases are crucial, with market expectations for a rate cut in July rising from 8% to 20% [7] - Morgan Stanley suggests that the likelihood of a rate cut in the next two meetings remains low, as most Fed officials support a cautious stance [7][8] - JPMorgan expresses concerns that anticipated Fed rate cuts may not benefit the stock market as investors hope, with emerging markets potentially outperforming [8]