油价恐再承压！原油交易员预计OPEC+本周将第四次增产

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is expected to reach an agreement for a significant oil production increase, aiming to regain market share, with a proposed increase of 411,000 barrels per day set to take effect in August [1][2]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Plans - Eight major OPEC+ member countries are preparing to discuss the plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day, with 30 out of 32 surveyed traders and analysts predicting approval during a video conference [1]. - OPEC+ has restored production at three times the planned rate over the past three months, despite signs of oversupply and weak fuel demand [1][2]. - The organization has already agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 2.2 million barrels per day production cuts implemented in 2023, with further increases expected to complete this process [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The decision to increase oil production could exacerbate the global oversupply situation, potentially driving oil prices lower, which may suppress inflation but significantly reduce revenues for oil-producing countries [2]. - Brent crude oil futures are currently near $68 per barrel, having dropped over 9% since the beginning of the year [1]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude prices could fall below $60 per barrel later this year and continue to decline into 2026 [5]. Group 3: Member Country Dynamics - Saudi Arabia is eager to restore idle oil production to reclaim market share from U.S. shale producers and other competitors [4]. - Some member countries, such as Iraq and Russia, have not fully utilized their allowed production increases, contributing to the overall production shortfall [5]. - Kazakhstan has been identified as a significant violator of production limits, exceeding its quota by millions of barrels, which has frustrated Saudi Arabia [5].