美伊核谈前路崎岖 停火状态异常脆弱 专家警示新冲突风险

Core Viewpoint - The path to restarting nuclear negotiations between Iran and the U.S. is increasingly difficult due to rising demands from both sides and a fragile ceasefire status that lacks substantial constraints [1][2][3] Group 1: Current Situation - The current ceasefire is described as exceptionally fragile, with a high likelihood of new conflicts arising in the future [1][2] - Iran insists that the U.S. must demonstrate goodwill before considering returning to the negotiation table, while the U.S. has threatened military action [1][2] - Both Iran and the U.S. have raised their demands, complicating the prospects for resuming negotiations [2] Group 2: Historical Context - Iran's demands are influenced by the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2018, which has led Iran to believe that the U.S. cannot arbitrarily change its stance in negotiations [2] - Previous negotiations between Iran and the U.S. have occurred over five rounds, but recent military actions by the U.S. and Israel have strained relations [2] Group 3: Military Tensions - U.S. President Trump has warned that if intelligence indicates Iran is capable of enriching uranium to military levels, the U.S. will likely conduct airstrikes [2][3] - The lack of a formal text or guarantee mechanisms for the ceasefire raises concerns about its sustainability and increases the risk of military conflict [3]