纯碱短期下行趋势难改

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the soda ash market has been experiencing a downward trend in prices since late April, currently stabilizing around 1150 yuan/ton, leading to expectations of a potential price rebound due to historical low levels [1] - The primary issue in the soda ash industry remains oversupply, with ongoing capacity expansion and no clear plans for capacity exit, indicating that a market reversal will take time [1] - Short-term production is affected by profit declines, with some maintenance schedules moved forward to March and May, resulting in fewer plans for the traditional maintenance peak in July and August [1] Group 2 - Demand for soda ash is under pressure due to weakening prices in photovoltaic glass, which is expected to lead to reduced production and further suppress soda ash demand [1] - The soda ash price is unlikely to change its downward trend until there is a substantial reduction in supply, although there may be short-term trading opportunities based on changes in the holding levels of spot and futures traders [2] - The overall industry reversal is contingent upon a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance [2]