环氧丙烷涨势恐难持续

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in international crude oil prices and export orders have led to a rebound in the epoxy propane market, but the sustainability of this price increase is uncertain due to weak demand and expected supply increases [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - In the first half of the year, the price of epoxy propane in China fluctuated within a low range, forming a W-shaped curve, with a peak of 8950 yuan in early January and a low of 6810 yuan in late April [2]. - As of June 26, the average market price of epoxy propane was 7666.67 yuan, reflecting a 4.4% increase from June 1 and a 7.33% increase from the low point on June 10 [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The recent price increase is attributed to a reduction in supply, with major production facilities operating at low capacity and limited spot supply in the market [3]. - New production capacity expected to come online in July may exert downward pressure on prices if realized, as only one facility has resumed operations at a reduced capacity [3]. Group 3: Demand Conditions - The demand side remains weak, with downstream products not fully reflecting the price increases of epoxy propane, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude among buyers [4]. - The overall market for downstream products, such as sponges and polyether, is sluggish, with limited new orders and a general lack of buying interest due to high raw material prices [4][5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Given the combination of concentrated supply increases and weak demand, the current price increase in the epoxy propane market is unlikely to be sustained, with expectations of a return to a weaker market condition [5].