阅兵日历效应显著，军工超额行情或现，军工ETF（512660）近5日涨幅达8%

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming military parade on September 3rd, commemorating the 80th anniversary of China's victory in the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, is expected to boost the military industry sector, which has historically shown independent excess returns prior to such events [1][2]. Military Industry Performance - The military industry sector has been active recently, with the military ETF (512660) experiencing an 8% increase in the past five days. This performance is attributed to the upcoming parade as well as ongoing military trade demand and international geopolitical fluctuations [4]. - The military ETF (512660) has seen a significant increase in shares, growing over 40% year-on-year, with its current scale exceeding 15.6 billion yuan [4]. Military Trade Demand - Chinese military equipment has gained recognition in various real combat scenarios, leading to increased international demand. Pakistan has announced plans to acquire several advanced Chinese military products, including the J-35 stealth fighter and the Hongqi-19 air defense system [5]. Global Military Expenditure Trends - Global military expenditures are on the rise due to ongoing geopolitical risks. NATO members have agreed to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, while China's military spending remains below the average of major military powers, indicating potential for growth [8]. Emerging Themes in Military Industry - New themes such as low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, large aircraft, and military intelligence are becoming increasingly active. These themes are expected to deepen and evolve, contributing to a potential recovery in the military industry [10]. Financial Performance and Outlook - The military industry sector is projected to see a recovery in margins and profitability starting in Q1 2025, following a dip in Q4 2024. The increase in total prepayments by 9.35% year-on-year suggests a rebound in downstream orders [12]. - The military ETF (512660) is noted for its liquidity and defensive characteristics, having shown the smallest decline during market downturns in 2018, 2022, and 2023, while ranking first in returns among peers in 2024 [14][17].