半年报看板 | 美元52年来“最惨上半年”，欧元大涨13.8%

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market has been influenced by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding U.S. government policies since 2025, leading to a significant decline in the U.S. dollar index, which fell by 10.72%, marking the largest drop for the same period since 1973, sparking discussions about the potential decline of the dollar's dominance [2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - Non-U.S. currencies have generally appreciated, with notable performances from the Swiss Franc, Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen. The Euro appreciated by 13.86% against the U.S. dollar in the first half of 2025, while the Swiss Franc rose by 12.59%, and the British Pound approached a 10% increase [2]. - The offshore Chinese Yuan saw a modest increase of 2.27% against the U.S. dollar, with the midpoint exchange rate appreciating by 298 points [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has pressured the dollar, with market expectations that the loose monetary and fiscal policies favored by the Trump administration will lead to a significant decline in real interest rates, contributing to dollar weakness [8]. - Speculative short positions on the dollar reached their highest level since July 2023, indicating a shift in global investors' perspectives on dollar allocation in their portfolios [8]. - Analysts suggest that while there is a trend of funds flowing out of U.S. assets, this trend is not yet widespread or necessarily sustainable [8]. Group 3: Future Dollar Outlook - Analysts predict that the dollar will continue to face downward pressure in the second half of 2025 due to multiple negative factors, including uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs and increasing concerns about U.S. Treasury securities [9]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a significant depreciation of the dollar, predicting a 9% decline in the dollar index, potentially reaching around 91 points by 2026 [10]. Group 4: Euro's Position - The Euro has gained a more risk-averse status compared to the dollar, with expectations that it may continue to appreciate, potentially reaching 1.20 against the dollar by the end of 2025 [14]. - Analysts believe that the Euro's strength will depend on the divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, with potential support from improving economic conditions in the Eurozone [15]. Group 5: Asian Currencies - Some Asian currencies may experience significant appreciation against the dollar in the context of a weakening dollar, with the Japanese Yen expected to fluctuate between 137 and 145 against the dollar [16]. - The future trajectory of the Chinese Yuan is closely tied to the dollar's outlook, with expectations of a stable appreciation, potentially within the range of 7.05 to 7.25 [17].