食品饮料板块内部行业分化，啤酒进入旺季上行通道

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry is undergoing a deep adjustment cycle in 2024, facing continuous demand contraction and extreme weather disruptions, leading to a low point in the industry by mid-2024. A recovery is expected to begin in the third quarter of 2024, driven by policy changes and improved consumer income expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The beer industry experienced significant pressure from demand shrinkage and inventory issues, with a "demand-inventory-funding" triad impacting sales [1]. - By the first quarter of 2025, the beer sector reported revenues of 20.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, indicating a recovery trend [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the beer sector in Q1 2025 was 2.53 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations are positive with the upcoming beer consumption peak and macro policies improving terminal consumption scenarios, leading to a rebound in sales [2]. - Long-term, the continuation of consumption stimulus policies, such as dining vouchers, is anticipated to directly benefit beer consumption [2]. - The high-end beer market still holds potential for growth, with opportunities for price upgrades [2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Food and Beverage ETF (515170) tracks the sub-index of the food and beverage industry, focusing on high-barrier sectors like liquor and beverages, providing a convenient investment tool for small capital [2].