日元迎“黄金七月”？历史规律叠加美元疲软，多头押注升温

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has historically performed well in July, with an average appreciation of 2.8% against the US dollar over the past five years, and a 9% increase in the last six months [1] - Analysts attribute the yen's strength in July to multiple factors, including adjustments in the Bank of Japan's policies, position adjustments before the summer holidays, and exporters converting overseas earnings into yen [1] - The overall weakness of the US dollar is considered a primary driver for the yen's appreciation this month [1] Group 2 - Following hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan's members regarding potential interest rate hikes, the yen has strengthened, with a 40% probability of a rate hike in October and over 50% by year-end [2] - Expectations of progress in trade negotiations and a more hawkish signal from the Bank of Japan are anticipated to support the yen [2] - The dollar's performance is likely to influence the direction of the yen, with the dollar index having dropped approximately 10.8% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance since 1973 [2] Group 3 - The trend in the foreign exchange market is expected to be a weaker dollar, largely due to trade tensions, with potential escalations in trade conflicts anticipated [3]