大摩研报：美国消费电子支出意愿跌至新低 高收入群体骤降18个百分点

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a significant decline in American consumers' willingness to spend on consumer electronics amid the current economic climate, with low-income groups decreasing by 3 percentage points to -18% and high-income groups dropping by 18 percentage points to -9% [1][2] Consumer Sentiment - The AlphaWise consumer survey reveals that as of June, consumer sentiment regarding the economic outlook has worsened, with spending willingness reaching a pre-tariff low. 10% of consumers expect the economy to deteriorate in the next six months, a 4 percentage point increase from May [1][2] - High-income consumers exhibit the most pronounced pessimism, with a 12 percentage point decrease in their economic outlook [1] Spending Intentions - In June, the net spending intention for consumer electronics fell by 2 percentage points to -3%, while the net spending intention for PCs dropped by 4 percentage points to -7%. Over the next six months, the net spending intention for consumer electronics is expected to decline further by 7 percentage points to -15% [2] - The decline in spending willingness is evident across both low-income and high-income groups, with high-income consumers showing a particularly sharp increase in pessimism [2] Impact of Tariffs - 33% of respondents indicated that tariffs would lead to reduced overall spending in the next three months, although this figure improved by 3 percentage points compared to May. The impact of tariffs is more pronounced among lower-income consumers, with 33% of those earning under $50,000 planning to cut spending, and 37% among those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 [2] Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the economic outlook for American consumers remains uncertain, predicting a more challenging market for consumer electronics over the next six months. This conclusion is supported by various data points, including consumer sentiment, spending intentions, and the impact of tariffs [2][4] Data Analysis - The report includes various charts and data, such as a direct positive correlation (correlation coefficient of 0.66) between the economic outlook and future consumer electronics spending intentions, as well as comparisons with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index [4] - The findings highlight the severe challenges facing the consumer electronics market, driven by deteriorating consumer sentiment, declining spending intentions, and the effects of tariffs [4]