Core Viewpoint - The USDA inventory report negatively impacted U.S. soybean prices, leading to a decline in domestic soybean meal prices, although the overall drop was limited due to strong domestic demand and low price levels providing support [1][2]. Group 1: USDA Report Impact - The USDA's planting and inventory report revealed that U.S. soybean planting area for 2025 is projected at 83.4 million acres, slightly lower than market expectations and the previous estimate of 83.5 million acres, which is mildly bullish [1]. - As of June 1, 2025, U.S. old crop soybean quarterly inventory was reported at 1.008 billion bushels, lower than the previous quarter's 1.91 billion bushels but higher than market expectations of 980 million bushels, indicating a bearish sentiment [1]. - The overall report data is considered neutral to slightly bearish for U.S. soybeans, with future attention on weather conditions in soybean-producing regions [1]. Group 2: Domestic Market Analysis - Domestic soybean meal futures opened lower but quickly recovered, remaining within the low price range seen in early June, indicating limited downside potential due to cost support [2]. - Upstream enterprises maintain high crushing rates due to sufficient raw material supply, leading to increased soybean meal inventory, which may exert pressure on prices in the short term [2]. - As of June 27, major oil mills in China had an imported soybean inventory of 6.55 million tons, up 170,000 tons week-on-week and 260,000 tons year-on-year, indicating a significant increase compared to the past three-year average [2]. - The operating rate of major oil mills in June was at a historical high, with expectations for July to remain elevated, resulting in soybean crushing volumes exceeding 9 million tons and soybean meal production above 7 million tons, which is higher than the average monthly consumption of 6.5 million tons [2].
美农报告数据中性偏空 豆粕价格继续承压
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-07-01 07:03