2025楼市半年考：地方数百条政策“稳市”，核心城市出现企稳迹象

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a stabilization phase in the first half of 2025, supported by a series of government policies aimed at boosting demand and managing risks [2][3][4]. Policy Measures - Approximately 170 provinces and cities have introduced over 340 policies in the first half of 2025, maintaining a high frequency of policy implementation [2][4]. - Key policy areas include inventory reduction, demand expansion, new models, and risk mitigation, with a focus on supporting housing demand through various measures such as lowering mortgage rates and promoting urban renewal [4][5]. - The central government has consistently emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, with significant policy announcements made in March, April, and June [3][4]. Market Performance - The first half of 2025 saw a notable performance in core cities, with new residential sales in Beijing and Shanghai increasing by approximately 4%, while Guangzhou experienced a 16% increase and Shenzhen saw over 30% growth [7]. - In Shenzhen, a total of 51,104 residential units were signed in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [7]. - The sales performance of major real estate companies indicates that 47.8% of their sales came from second-tier cities, while first-tier cities contributed 40% of sales, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [8]. Price Trends - The average price of new homes in 100 cities increased by 0.97% from January to May 2025, indicating a structural price increase driven by improved housing quality [9]. - The second-hand housing market has shown a decline in prices, with a cumulative drop of 2.88% from January to May 2025, as the market continues to adjust [11]. Future Outlook - The overall sales volume in the real estate market is expected to remain under pressure, with an estimated total of 900 million square meters of new residential sales for the year [10][11]. - The market is likely to continue experiencing a divergence in performance across different cities and projects, influenced by policy measures, supply-demand dynamics, and urban effects [10].