欧元区通胀微升触及2%目标线 央行降息周期或迎暂停契机

Group 1 - Eurozone inflation rate for June reached the European Central Bank's target of 2%, providing a strong basis for pausing the interest rate cuts that have been ongoing for a year [1] - The consumer price index increased by 2% year-on-year, slightly up from 1.9% in May, aligning with market expectations [1] - Core inflation remained at 2.3%, while the service sector inflation rose to 3.3% [1] Group 2 - The strengthening of the euro and declining energy costs are effectively suppressing upward price pressures, while the overall economic weakness in the Eurozone is also a constraining factor [3] - Germany's inflation unexpectedly slowed, while France and Spain saw slight increases, and Italy remained stable [3] - The ECB's chief economist indicated that despite uncertainties from trade policies and geopolitical events, the inflation control process is nearing completion [3] Group 3 - The ECB is expected to pause its interest rate cuts during the upcoming policy meeting, having already reduced the deposit rate to 2% over eight occasions since June 2024 [4] - Policymakers anticipate clearer policy insights from the September meeting, with new quarterly economic forecasts to reveal the actual impact of trade tariffs [7] - The ECB's vice president expressed confidence in achieving price stability, despite potential geopolitical risks and the possibility of inflation remaining below target being low [7]