程实：HIBOR低谷之后有望温和上行

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) does not actively set local interest rates but injects liquidity based on market demand, leading to a technical decline in HIBOR as a predictable outcome within the mechanism [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since April, the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) and HIBOR have experienced significant volatility, with short-term rates declining rapidly, raising concerns about liquidity and the operation of the linked exchange rate system [1][2]. - The HKD has strengthened due to net inflows of international capital, as non-US capital accelerates its return to Asia and emerging markets, increasing the allocation of HKD assets in global portfolios [2][3]. - The HKMA's intervention to maintain the HKD's strength has led to substantial liquidity injections, with the total injection exceeding HKD 100 billion by May 2025, resulting in a significant increase in the banking system's liquidity surplus [2][6]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The structural decline in short-term HIBOR rates is attributed to the rapid increase in liquidity, with the 3-month HIBOR dropping below 2%, a decrease of over 200 basis points from earlier in the year [2][3]. - The low HIBOR environment is expected to support credit recovery and stabilize sensitive sectors like real estate and capital markets, providing short-term financial conditions conducive to economic recovery amid external uncertainties [7][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - HIBOR is anticipated to gradually rise from its current low levels, although the pace will be more moderate compared to previous sharp fluctuations, with potential divergence from USD rates in the short term [10][11]. - The momentum for arbitrage trading has weakened, as the attractiveness of USD assets declines, and the HKD approaches the weak end of the peg, reducing the incentive for further depreciation [10][11]. - The HKMA has the capacity to absorb liquidity through various tools, which will play a crucial role in adjusting HIBOR levels, while the trajectory of USD interest rates remains a key variable influencing HIBOR's future direction [10][11].