中国银行研究院最新研判：预计第三季度我国GDP增长5%

Economic Outlook - The report projects a GDP growth of approximately 5% for China in the third quarter and for the entire year of 2025 [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP is expected to grow around 5.4%, with a stable performance in domestic demand and better-than-expected exports [2] Policy Measures - The report emphasizes the need for macroeconomic policies to be more effective, focusing on demand-side measures and accelerating the implementation of existing policies [2] - There is significant room for fiscal and monetary policy to support economic stability, with an emphasis on enhancing consumption potential and addressing external risks [2] Banking Sector Performance - The global banking industry is facing pressure with a weak economic recovery, but emerging industries like artificial intelligence are providing new support for profitability [3] - Chinese commercial banks are expected to maintain a low non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, projected at 1.51% in Q1 2025, down 0.08 percentage points year-on-year [3] Asset and Liability Growth - The report anticipates that the asset and liability growth rate for Chinese banks will remain around 7.5% in Q3 2025, driven by investments in technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance [4] - The support from banks to the real economy is expected to continue, with loan and deposit growth driving overall asset and liability scale [4]