英财政大臣再遭打击 英国预算机构承认预测过于乐观

Core Viewpoint - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has acknowledged that its forecasts for medium-term economic growth were overly optimistic, which poses challenges for the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves [1] Economic Forecasts - The OBR's two-year economic growth forecast was found to be overestimated by an average of 0.3 percentage points [1] - The five-year growth forecast was overestimated by an average of 0.7 percentage points, with a cumulative forecast deviation of 2.2 percentage points over five years [1] Implications for Fiscal Policy - The analysis report released on Tuesday increases the risk of downward adjustments to productivity and potential growth forecasts in the upcoming autumn budget [1] - Following a series of costly policy reversals, this situation further complicates Reeves' fiscal plans, with market expectations suggesting that tax increases may be necessary in the budget [1]