【财经分析】2025年上半年港股盘点：估值修复与结构转型下的领跑者

Core Viewpoint - Despite ongoing high-risk factors such as geopolitical conflicts and tariff policies, the global stock market showed an overall upward trend in the first half of 2025, with the Hong Kong stock market leading with a 20% increase [1]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24072.28 points, marking a 20% increase since the beginning of the year, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and the China Enterprises Index also rising approximately 19% [3]. - The index experienced two phases of upward movement, with the first phase seeing a rise from a low of 18671.49 points on January 13 to a high of 24874.39 points on March 19, driven by positive impacts from domestic AI developments [3]. - The second phase began in late March, with the index dropping to a low of 19260.21 points on April 9 before climbing to a high of 24533.39 points by June 25, supported by international capital inflows and new listings in the hard tech and new consumption sectors [3]. Sector Performance - Most sectors experienced gains in the first half of the year, with notable increases in jewelry and watches (282%), toys and leisure products (182%), and poultry and meat (112%) [4]. - Among stocks with a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion HKD, the top gainers included Lao Pu Gold (321%), Sanofi (289%), and Yaocai Securities (278%), while the largest declines were seen in Maifushi (-52%), Sunac China (-38%), and Black Sesame Intelligence (-36%) [4]. - The market structure has shifted, with technology, consumption, and healthcare sectors gaining prominence over traditional sectors like finance, internet, and real estate [4]. Capital Flows and IPO Activity - The first half of 2025 saw net purchases of Hong Kong stocks by southbound funds exceeding 730 billion HKD, a 90% year-on-year increase, with southbound trading accounting for 19.3% of daily turnover [5]. - Hong Kong led the world in IPO fundraising, with 42 companies raising over 105 billion HKD, primarily in the technology and consumption sectors, which accounted for over 70% of the total [6]. - The new stock market saw a significant increase in the first-day performance, with 62% of new stocks rising on their debut, and an average first-day gain of over 13% [8]. Future Outlook - Institutions generally expect the liquidity benefits to continue into the second half of the year, although there are concerns about performance pressures in high-valuation sectors [2][9]. - Analysts believe that the strong performance of the Hong Kong market reflects a revaluation of "new core assets" by international capital, supported by a positive cycle of IPO expansion and liquidity activation [9]. - There are potential structural opportunities in the market, although geopolitical conflicts and global recession risks may still impact market performance [10].