超2万亿元逆回购本周到期，央行国债买卖公告“缺席”引热议

Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The central bank adjusted its open market operations on July 1, conducting a 131 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40%, and achieving a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1][2] - In the first week of July, the open market faced significant withdrawal pressure, with reverse repos maturing exceeding 2 trillion yuan, including a high of 525.9 billion yuan on July 4 [1][3] - The central bank is expected to flexibly adjust operations based on changes in the funding environment, potentially increasing liquidity or utilizing other monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable liquidity levels [1][4] Group 2: Market Expectations and Reactions - Market expectations suggest that liquidity will remain ample in July, with analysts predicting a minimal liquidity gap post-quarter-end [4][9] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a significant rise on June 30, with the overnight Shibor increasing by 5.10 basis points to 1.4220%, but subsequently dropped after the quarter-end [3][9] - The central bank's decision not to announce the bond trading operations on June 30 has led to speculation that the rules for announcing such operations may have changed to "as needed" rather than at the end of the month [5][6] Group 3: Government Bond Trading Operations - The discussion around the resumption of government bond trading operations has intensified, especially given the seasonal tightening of funds at the end of the quarter [6][8] - Analysts believe that the resumption of government bond trading is inevitable, but the timing will be carefully managed to minimize downward pressure on market yields [7][10] - The central bank's previous suspension of bond buying was attributed to factors such as limited government bond supply and the need to maintain yields at acceptable levels [10][11]