J. M. Smucker(US:SJM) ZACKSยท2025-07-01 16:25Core Insights - The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping 12.3% over the past month, which is notably worse than the industry's 1% decline and the S&P 500's 4.1% growth [1][2][8] - The company is facing multiple challenges, including weak sales in its Sweet Baked Snacks segment, rising coffee costs, and declining demand in its pet food category [8][9][10] Stock Performance - As of the last trading session, SJM closed at $98.20, close to its 52-week low of $93.30, reached on June 18, 2025 [5] - The stock is trading below its 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating bearish sentiment [5] - SJM's forward 12-month P/E ratio is 10.44, below its one-year median of 11.07 and the industry average of 15.85, reflecting a discount compared to peers like Hershey and McCormick [6] Segment Performance - The Sweet Baked Snacks segment, particularly the Hostess brand, reported a 14% decline in comparable sales in Q4 of fiscal 2025 due to sluggish consumer demand and internal distribution issues [9] - The pet food segment saw a 13% decline in net sales, impacted by retailer inventory reductions and weak demand for dog snacks [11] Cost Pressures - The surge in green coffee prices has led to multiple price increases across SJM's coffee portfolio, with risks of volume loss due to demand elasticity [10] - Tariffs on imported green coffee, primarily from Brazil and Vietnam, are adding further margin pressure [12] Earnings Outlook - The company has issued a cautious outlook for fiscal 2026, expecting adjusted earnings between $8.50 and $9.50, with a projected 25% decline in Q1 year-over-year [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS has seen downward revisions, with the current quarter's estimate declining by 10 cents to $9.28 per share [14]