国际金价上半年涨超25% 避险需求支撑下或继续走高

Core Viewpoint - The gold price has seen a significant increase in the first half of 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and central bank purchases, with expectations for continued upward movement in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, the London spot gold price rose by 25.7%, marking the largest semi-annual increase since the second half of 2007 [1]. - The international gold price reached a historical high of $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, followed by a period of fluctuation in May and June [1]. - Currently, gold prices are oscillating between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce, with increasing market competition between bulls and bears [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The decline in confidence in the US dollar, with a 10.7% drop in the dollar index in the first half of 2025, has provided strong support for rising gold prices [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts have heightened market risk aversion, maintaining high demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. - Central banks globally have shown a strong demand for gold reserves, with a net purchase of 256 tons in the first four months of 2025 [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Activities - As of the end of May 2025, China's gold reserves stood at 7,383 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) [2]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold holdings over the next 12 months, with nearly 43% planning to add to their reserves within the year [2].