Group 1 - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute indicates that frequent adjustments in U.S. trade policies will gradually reveal negative impacts on the global economy by Q2 2025, affecting U.S. consumer demand and investment activities in other economies [1] - Global economic growth momentum weakened in Q2 2025 due to changes in the trade environment, with a stable supply side and continued weak demand side [1] - Major economies are experiencing sluggish consumer growth, with U.S. retail sales declining by 0.9% month-on-month in May, and consumer confidence indices in the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan at two-year lows [1] Group 2 - The report forecasts that the global economy will face more challenges in Q3 due to tariff impacts, with a potential continuation of slowing demand expansion [1] - High inflation continues to erode real income in Japan, leading to weak domestic demand growth [1] - Emerging economies may increase their expansion into domestic and non-U.S. markets, and the restructuring of global supply chains could boost some economies' real investments, but overall global demand expansion remains uncertain [1] Group 3 - The report states that tariff increases and trade policy uncertainties will raise price levels in Q3, while changes in the Middle East may exacerbate inflationary pressures through impacts on international energy prices and global shipping [2] - Weak consumer market growth expectations may alleviate price pressures from the demand side, leading to differentiated inflation trends across different economies [2] - As U.S. inventories of previously "imported goods" are depleted, tariff burdens will gradually be passed on to U.S. consumer prices and production costs, while weak consumer demand will suppress price increases [2]
中行报告：美贸易政策频繁调整 经济负面影响显现